January 22, 2026
Q3 FY26 Performance & Strategic Catalyst Analysis
As long-term investors in Wise plc, we are pleased to provide an update following the company’s Q3 FY26 trading results. On January 20, 2026, Wise shares surged 13% in a single session, a significant recovery after a period of lackluster performance.
The primary driver of the recent price action was not just the 21% growth in underlying income, but a significant upgrade to profitability guidance.
Wise management now expects the FY26 underlying Profit Before Tax (PBT) margin to be at the top end of their 13-16% range. Crucially, this guidance is inclusive of approximately £35 million in one-off costs related to the company’s upcoming dual listing.
Our Take: If you strip away these one-off listing costs, the underlying operational margin is effectively trending toward 18-19%. This demonstrates massive “operating leverage”—the ability to grow revenue significantly faster than expenses. As the company scales, more of every pound in revenue is falling to the bottom line, a hallmark of a maturing, high-quality compounder.
The Q3 data highlights that Wise is successfully deepening its “moat” through product diversification:
Active Customers: Now at 10.9 million (+20% YoY).
Wise Business: This remains the “hidden gem” of the portfolio. Business active customers grew 25%, while business cross-border volumes surged 37% YoY. Business customers are stickier and provide higher lifetime value.
Customer Holdings: Total holdings grew 34% to £27.5 billion. By pivoting to an “account-first” model (where customers hold balances and use Wise cards), Wise is capturing a greater share of the customer’s financial life, moving beyond simple one-off transfers. Lowering fees was a winning strategy for the company, even though the stock was punished in the short-term.
Wise is currently finalizing its dual listing on a US exchange (expected H1 2026) while maintaining its presence on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
Rationale: The United States is Wise’s largest and fastest-growing market. A US listing is designed to attract a deeper pool of North American institutional capital and increase brand visibility among US enterprise clients.
Governance: The move includes a 10-year extension of the dual-class share structure, ensuring that Co-founder and CEO Kristo Käärmann retains the voting power necessary to prioritize long-term infrastructure investment over short-term quarterly pressures.
Following the Jan 20th update, the consensus among major investment banks has shifted decidedly bullish. Analysts are increasingly pricing in the “platform effect”—where Wise’s infrastructure is used by other banks (like HSBC or Standard Chartered) to power their own transfers. Jeffries has the price target at 1,231p, a 22% upside from current levels. Conclusion
Wise’s trajectory is clear: they are successfully lowering prices for customers while simultaneously expanding their profit margins through scale. We strongly believe in the mission and executional capability of the Wise team.
The upcoming dual listing serves as a major liquidity catalyst. As long-term investors, we believe Wise remains the premier play in the global “movement of money”, with a valuation that still does not fully reflect its potential as the backend infrastructure for the world’s banking system.
